Lubricating Oil Shortage

[nkaminar]

I read in the news this morning that dealers are raising the price of lubricating oils because of a shortage caused by the crude oil shipping problems. Some of the crude oil that would normally be turned into lubricating oil is not being used to produce Diesel fuel. There is going to be a shortage in lubricating oil. It mostly effects the lighter viscosity oils, used for modern cars, more than the oils we use for our Model A's, but it may be a good idea to stock up.

[updraught]

Supposedly ... Toyota have put out a service bulletin about it.

From a few weeks ago.
https://bobistheoilguy.com/forums/th...update.406554/

[alexiskai]

This is one of those weird topics where I'm hearing from certain quarters that we're heading for a crisis within a few weeks and from others I'm hearing that everything's business as usual. I've heard both that AutoZone and Toyota are circulating internal memos about it and that those memos are forged. The BITOG forums have a moderator ban on the entire subject.

From what I can figure out:
1. There is a current/expected shortage of Group III base oils due to the war.
2. There are some refined products on the market that are currently made exclusively from Group 3 oils.
3. Most of these products *can* be made from Group II base stock, but it's more expensive and in many cases regulations prohibit it.

My guess is that we will see temporary waivers for most of these products to allow them to be formulated from other base stocks. The question is, how much supply disruption at the retail end will actually occur, and will some products be too niche (e.g., Hyundai transmission oil) to reformulate so they just end up being expensive or in very short supply until the war is over. I don't think anyone knows.

[Synchro909]

I don't remember exactly when it was but during an oil shortage a few years ago, I recall old tyres were being recycled into diesel fuel here. That would ease the pressure on oil supplies. There has been no mention so far during this situation to do the same so I figure things are not as bad as some would have us believe.

[old ugly]

for cars that have oil filters. if you have NO access to new oil. keep changing the oil filter sooner than recommended and don't drain your oil from the pan. synthetic will last longer than conventional.

i cant see this happening but that is what i would do. try to clean the oil.

[Synchro909]

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Originally Posted by old ugly

for cars that have oil filters. if you have NO access to new oil. keep changing the oil filter sooner than recommended and don't drain your oil from the pan. synthetic will last longer than conventional.

i cant see this happening but that is what i would do. try to clean the oil.

I'll go along with that. In my workhorse Model A, I have pushed the oil change interval out to as much as 3,500 miles but that was with constant warm engine driving and a full flow filter. It did the engine NO HARM at all. It now has over 80,000 miles on it and is still going strong.

[ModelA29]

Import Volume: In the first half of 2025, the U.S. imported approximately 400,000 barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil and condensate through the strait, only 2% of total U.S. petroleum liquids consumption.


Losing 2% does not a crisis make. What we are dealing with is oil companies taking advantage of a situation to price gouge. All we need is for .gov to go back to pre Carter regulations - but as you can see it wasn't only the oil companies dipping into your pockets from that deal. You paid a federal road tax at the pump and the oil companies paid income tax on the gas you bought.


President Jimmy Carter initiated the phased deregulation of domestic oil prices in April 1979, transitioning the United States away from the rigid price controls and allocation systems originally imposed by the Nixon administration. This deregulation was paired with a windfall profits tax on major oil companies

[alexiskai]

The problem appears to be affecting supplies of lubricant oil specifically. Oil is not a single commodity, and to cite a statistic about all oil imports collectively is to miss the point.

Base oil prices are almost three times prewar levels since the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran on Feb. 28, tightening global lubricant supply and raising costs for manufacturers, according to market participants and regional trade data.

The conflict has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy corridors, increasing freight costs, delaying cargoes and adding pressure to global supply chains. Tanker operators had altered shipping movements and reassessed routes because of security concerns and uncertainty surrounding Iranian retaliation, Reuters reported.

The price increases have affected all major base oil grades, which have risen alongside crude oil and freight costs, while buyers in Asia and Europe face longer lead times and tightening availability, according to traders and lubricant blenders. European prices for API Group I and Group III grades have increased by around 175% and Group II by 124%, according to Lubes’n’Greases data.

“These are the highest base oil prices I can remember, and I can assure you that there were no higher Group I prices going back 50 years ago. Unbelievable,” Ray Masson, managing director of trader Puma Crown and a contributor to Lubes’n’Greases, told Lube Report.

Refiners are increasingly shifting production toward diesel and gasoil, which currently offer stronger margins than base oils. Both diesel and lubricant base stocks are produced using vacuum gas oil feedstock, known as VGO, meaning refiners are diverting material away from lubricant production and into fuel manufacturing, in turn reducing availability of Group I and Group II base oils and pushing lubricant prices higher, according to market participants.

Traders and blenders said the supply squeeze is now spreading across the lubricants value chain, with higher additive, freight and blending costs increasing pressure on industrial and consumer lubricant prices globally.

https://www.lubesngreases.com/lubere...all-time-high/

[Hitman]

LOL. This is how rumors and misinformation spread. Next, we'll hear about you holding oil cases for your next oil change. Just like toilet paper in 2020.

One thing is certain, I don't get my oil supply news from FB.

[ModelA29]

Originally Posted by Hitman

One thing is certain, I don't get my oil supply news from FB.

Here is a good source - https://www.lundbergsurvey.com/LundbergInNews_c.aspx


Lundberg was pretty sharp when the feds made a law that the oil companies could not talk to each other for fear of price fixing etc he quit his oil company job and started an independent newsletter. The oil companies talked to him and he published their info in a weekly newsletter for all subscribers to read and act on. Presto no collusion.
My wife worked there in the 80s and 90s. We always knew a few days ahead of time if we should fill up now or wait.

[nkaminar]

Where does synthetic oil come from? Will this effect that price?

[alexiskai]

Originally Posted by nkaminar

Where does synthetic oil come from? Will this effect that price?

Synthetic oil is still made from petroleum base stocks. The refining process is more complex - the base stocks are broken down and then mixed together in more precise formulations than is possible with conventional oil.

From CNN yesterday: “Auto industry braces for motor oil shortage”

https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/19/busin...ge-prices-iran

[ModelA29]

Originally Posted by nkaminar

Where does synthetic oil come from? Will this effect that price?

There should be no problem with pure man made synthetics - but as we know there is no problem that the government can't make worse with a large infusion of you money and no shortage that corporate America can't fix with a large infusion of your money. Full Synthetic will be in great demand causing a shortage and a need for you to reach deeper into your pocket.
Conventional vs. "Full Synthetic" Reality

In the market today, the term "full synthetic" can be loosely defined. Many oils on the shelf are heavily processed crude oil (API Group III base stocks) rather than the true man-made compounds (PAOs). While legally marketable as synthetic in the U.S. due to a 1999 legal ruling, they provide excellent performance, though true Group IV and V synthetics generally maintain better properties in extreme cold or high heat


Top Group 4/5 Synthetic Oil Brands

• AMSOIL: Known for using high-quality PAO (Group IV) and Ester (Group V) base oils in their flagship formulations, particularly in the Signature Series.
• Red Line Synthetic Oil: Primarily utilizes Polyol Ester (Group V) base stocks.
• Motul: Features high-performance PAO and ester formulations (e.g., 300V and 8100 series).
• Mobil 1: Several formulations, particularly Mobil 1 Extended Performance and Annual Protection, are PAO-rich (Group IV).
• Liqui Moly: Often uses PAO base stocks in their top-tier German-engineered lines.
• Royal Purple: Utilizes PAO-based oil with proprietary additive technology.
• Castrol: Specifically, the Castrol Edge 0W-30/0W-40 formulations "Made in Germany" are known to be primarily PAO-based.
• Ravenol: Uses PAO in many of their premium synthetic products.
• Hot Shot's Secret: Their Blue Diamond line is 100% Group IV PAO-based

[Phil Brown]

A wise old guy once told me a long time ago
"that you should never raise the price on something that people want if there is an abundance of it, but as soon as it is in short supply......"

And that reminds me, need to go get some toilet paper

[jb-ob]

Always race out to buy milk & bread in front of a possible storm.

Do your home work, even oil in sealed containers supposedly has a shelf life. Synthetic longer.

[updraught]

We always laugh about Himalayan rock salt, millions of years old, that has a use by date.

[alexiskai]

https://motorillustrated.com/strait-...uction/184887/

While there are normally solutions to a lack of Group III oil, the current set of circumstances makes them not viable at the moment.

For example, automakers and dealerships can source synthetic oil from South Korea when American refineries fail to meet demand, but the Asian country also gets its Grade III oil from the Middle East and is currently running out of stock.

Another option would be to transform Group II oils into motor oil, but this type of petroleum is also used in the creation of diesel fuel, which is currently priced so high at the pump that refineries direct all of their Grade II oil stock to Diesel production.

Faced with this, both automakers and dealerships have begun keeping a larger inventory of motor oil and transmission fluid.

In addition, automakers such as Nissan have begun rationing their dealerships’ oil supply.

[nkaminar]

The conventional oil I use has not gone up price. I keep a stock of 10 gallons.

[Herb Concord Ca]

nkaminar, how many cars use your stash of oil?

[nkaminar]

Just one. 5 gallons per oil change, once a year. But I fill up quart containers to carry with me. It was sort of an accident that I ended up with 10 gallons. Long story but it involved helping with another car that was 4 hours away and I kept forgetting to bring some oil from home.

I am going to keep monitoring the price to see if it goes up. This is traditional oil and heavy weight, 30W-50, for use in my Burtz pressure lubricated engine. Stock Model A engines should use 5W-30.