Lubricating Oil Shortage
 

I read in the news this morning that dealers are raising the price of lubricating oils because of a shortage caused by the crude oil shipping problems. Some of the crude oil that would normally be turned into lubricating oil is not being used to produce Diesel fuel. There is going to be a shortage in lubricating oil. It mostly effects the lighter viscosity oils, used for modern cars, more than the oils we use for our Model A's, but it may be a good idea to stock up.

Re: Lubricating Oil Shortage
 

Supposedly ... Toyota have put out a service bulletin about it.

From a few weeks ago.
https://bobistheoilguy.com/forums/th...update.406554/

Re: Lubricating Oil Shortage
 

This is one of those weird topics where I'm hearing from certain quarters that we're heading for a crisis within a few weeks and from others I'm hearing that everything's business as usual. I've heard both that AutoZone and Toyota are circulating internal memos about it and that those memos are forged. The BITOG forums have a moderator ban on the entire subject.

From what I can figure out:
1. There is a current/expected shortage of Group III base oils due to the war.
2. There are some refined products on the market that are currently made exclusively from Group 3 oils.
3. Most of these products *can* be made from Group II base stock, but it's more expensive and in many cases regulations prohibit it.

My guess is that we will see temporary waivers for most of these products to allow them to be formulated from other base stocks. The question is, how much supply disruption at the retail end will actually occur, and will some products be too niche (e.g., Hyundai transmission oil) to reformulate so they just end up being expensive or in very short supply until the war is over. I don't think anyone knows.

Re: Lubricating Oil Shortage
 

I don't remember exactly when it was but during an oil shortage a few years ago, I recall old tyres were being recycled into diesel fuel here. That would ease the pressure on oil supplies. There has been no mention so far during this situation to do the same so I figure things are not as bad as some would have us believe.

Re: Lubricating Oil Shortage
 

for cars that have oil filters. if you have NO access to new oil. keep changing the oil filter sooner than recommended and don't drain your oil from the pan. synthetic will last longer than conventional.

i cant see this happening but that is what i would do. try to clean the oil.

Re: Lubricating Oil Shortage
 

I'll go along with that. In my workhorse Model A, I have pushed the oil change interval out to as much as 3,500 miles but that was with constant warm engine driving and a full flow filter. It did the engine NO HARM at all. It now has over 80,000 miles on it and is still going strong.

Re: Lubricating Oil Shortage
 

Import Volume: In the first half of 2025, the U.S. imported approximately 400,000 barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil and condensate through the strait, only 2% of total U.S. petroleum liquids consumption.


Losing 2% does not a crisis make. What we are dealing with is oil companies taking advantage of a situation to price gouge. All we need is for .gov to go back to pre Carter regulations - but as you can see it wasn't only the oil companies dipping into your pockets from that deal. You paid a federal road tax at the pump and the oil companies paid income tax on the gas you bought.


President Jimmy Carter initiated the phased deregulation of domestic oil prices in April 1979, transitioning the United States away from the rigid price controls and allocation systems originally imposed by the Nixon administration. This deregulation was paired with a windfall profits tax on major oil companies

Re: Lubricating Oil Shortage
 

The problem appears to be affecting supplies of lubricant oil specifically. Oil is not a single commodity, and to cite a statistic about all oil imports collectively is to miss the point.

https://www.lubesngreases.com/lubere...all-time-high/

Re: Lubricating Oil Shortage
 

LOL. This is how rumors and misinformation spread. Next, we'll hear about you holding oil cases for your next oil change. Just like toilet paper in 2020.

One thing is certain, I don't get my oil supply news from FB.

Re: Lubricating Oil Shortage
 

Here is a good source - https://www.lundbergsurvey.com/LundbergInNews_c.aspx


Lundberg was pretty sharp when the feds made a law that the oil companies could not talk to each other for fear of price fixing etc he quit his oil company job and started an independent newsletter. The oil companies talked to him and he published their info in a weekly newsletter for all subscribers to read and act on. Presto no collusion.
My wife worked there in the 80s and 90s. We always knew a few days ahead of time if we should fill up now or wait.

Re: Lubricating Oil Shortage
 

Where does synthetic oil come from? Will this effect that price?

Re: Lubricating Oil Shortage
 

Synthetic oil is still made from petroleum base stocks. The refining process is more complex - the base stocks are broken down and then mixed together in more precise formulations than is possible with conventional oil.

From CNN yesterday: “Auto industry braces for motor oil shortage”

https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/19/busin...ge-prices-iran

Re: Lubricating Oil Shortage
 

There should be no problem with pure man made synthetics - but as we know there is no problem that the government can't make worse with a large infusion of you money and no shortage that corporate America can't fix with a large infusion of your money. Full Synthetic will be in great demand causing a shortage and a need for you to reach deeper into your pocket.
Conventional vs. "Full Synthetic" Reality

In the market today, the term "full synthetic" can be loosely defined. Many oils on the shelf are heavily processed crude oil (API Group III base stocks) rather than the true man-made compounds (PAOs). While legally marketable as synthetic in the U.S. due to a 1999 legal ruling, they provide excellent performance, though true Group IV and V synthetics generally maintain better properties in extreme cold or high heat


Top Group 4/5 Synthetic Oil Brands

• AMSOIL: Known for using high-quality PAO (Group IV) and Ester (Group V) base oils in their flagship formulations, particularly in the Signature Series.
• Red Line Synthetic Oil: Primarily utilizes Polyol Ester (Group V) base stocks.
• Motul: Features high-performance PAO and ester formulations (e.g., 300V and 8100 series).
• Mobil 1: Several formulations, particularly Mobil 1 Extended Performance and Annual Protection, are PAO-rich (Group IV).
• Liqui Moly: Often uses PAO base stocks in their top-tier German-engineered lines.
• Royal Purple: Utilizes PAO-based oil with proprietary additive technology.
• Castrol: Specifically, the Castrol Edge 0W-30/0W-40 formulations "Made in Germany" are known to be primarily PAO-based.
• Ravenol: Uses PAO in many of their premium synthetic products.
• Hot Shot's Secret: Their Blue Diamond line is 100% Group IV PAO-based

Re: Lubricating Oil Shortage
 

A wise old guy once told me a long time ago
"that you should never raise the price on something that people want if there is an abundance of it, but as soon as it is in short supply......"

And that reminds me, need to go get some toilet paper :rolleyes:

Re: Lubricating Oil Shortage
 

Always race out to buy milk & bread in front of a possible storm.

Do your home work, even oil in sealed containers supposedly has a shelf life. Synthetic longer.

Re: Lubricating Oil Shortage
 

We always laugh about Himalayan rock salt, millions of years old, that has a use by date.

Re: Lubricating Oil Shortage
 

https://motorillustrated.com/strait-...uction/184887/

Re: Lubricating Oil Shortage
 

The conventional oil I use has not gone up price. I keep a stock of 10 gallons.

Re: Lubricating Oil Shortage
 

nkaminar, how many cars use your stash of oil?

Re: Lubricating Oil Shortage
 

Just one. 5 gallons per oil change, once a year. But I fill up quart containers to carry with me. It was sort of an accident that I ended up with 10 gallons. Long story but it involved helping with another car that was 4 hours away and I kept forgetting to bring some oil from home.

I am going to keep monitoring the price to see if it goes up. This is traditional oil and heavy weight, 30W-50, for use in my Burtz pressure lubricated engine. Stock Model A engines should use 5W-30.