Looking For An Expert To Debunk My Hypothesis: 1930 Engine Production

[1930-Pickup]

Looking below at the engine production totals for 1930, you can see there is a large output in the months of March though June.

Looking at the attached chart of the 1930 NYSE you can see that the market was recovering from the crash in October 1929 until about June 1930.

Could it be that in Q2 1930 Ford was ramping up for higher sales that eventually didn't materialize as the depression sank deeper and deeper?

The engines built during this four month high production output probably did not find a car until later, perhaps much later. It's well known that Ford didn't care much about 'First In, First Out' (FIFO) manufacturing practices and the earlier produced engines (which would have been put into storage first), may not have been used until last.

This scenario, if factual, would account for cars with later features but with earlier engines. A time period of months may have passed.

This is only my hypothesis. There are other folks that are much more knowledgeable about these things. I hope Steve and others may chime in to support of debunk this idea.

1930 Engine Production
January........83,954
February.....114,127
March........173,689
April..........190,238
May...........204,603
June..........193,241
July.............68,815
ref: http://www.mafca.com/data_eng_production.html

[SeaSlugs]

be aware many plants nowadays and 40+ years ago have a summer shutdown for major maintenance repairs/retrofits/installs/etc. At CAT this is the 2nd and 3rd weeks in July - workers are not working thus low part production. I dont know if ford did this as well.

Why it ramped in the first place im just going to spout off ideas for someone to research:

Did ford add onto the engine plant increasing output?

Was the demand spiked world wide?(opening new plant or opening trade to other countries)

Was there up and coming countries that were going thru massive building booms that needed trucks/tractors?

Were they cutting back production after it crashed in Oct29 to play it safe and see what happens or see how far it would drop then once it levels out then say"ok what do we need to do to get out of this hole?"

Doesnt seem to be any shortage of steel production or otherwise nor lumber and the dust bowl was just starting in the 30's so id rule them out.

[ronn]

You are suggesting the depression became worse, but for whom?

Chevy in 1931 outsold Ford and couldnt keep em in stock!

Wouldnt be surprised if Ford was afraid to lose the race to Chevy.

The worst years were 32-33. Production was a dribble for all car companies.

and yes, Im just guessing...................

[mike657894]

I don't know if this affects any thing but I have a 30 with a Nov 29 build date. It has Eye brow fenders

[ronn]

mike,

I see that on titles quite often. As it goes today, people buy 2018 cars in Nov of 2017

happens often. One co trying to get the edge on another..................

[Kevin in NJ]

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You need to look at other pictures. For example the 30 cabriolet body number to engine number assignement is tight. To the point they can almost predict the engine number of a body number.
By 31 the declining sales become apparent. Engines were used first in last out and by later 31 the engine numbers were less linear to body numbers. So what was happening is the engines were being used as fast as they were coming into the warehouse. By 31 we have various examples of earlier numbers being found on later bodies.

[Railcarmover]

Where did Ford warehouse thousands of engines?

[BRENT in 10-uh-C]

Originally Posted by Railcarmover

Where did Ford warehouse thousands of engines?

At the Branches. One often misguided theory is that Ford just made up a bunch of stuff. Nothing could be he further from the truth. They knew exactly what they were building at any given time. There was a place designated that each part would go, and for which vehicle it was to be attached to. The same applied to parts depots.

One other stat is the depression era only impacted about 1/3rd of US citizens, which means 2/3rds still had money to spend on cars. Some folks who may have driven nicer brands of cars may have opted to drop down a level to Fords due to price, but none the less, they were still buying new cars.

[katy]

Was the demand spiked world wide?(opening new plant or opening trade to other countries)

Was there up and coming countries that were going thru massive building booms that needed trucks/tractors?

Don't forget that the depression was world wide, not just in the US.

[Kevin in NJ]

Originally Posted by Railcarmover

Where did Ford warehouse thousands of engines?

There are pictures in the books and floating around on the net of the warehouses. One picture shows a pile like 30 feet high of fenders and you can see hundreds of engines on the floor waiting.

From various books I have read over the years there was talk about production and storage and the back up as sales slowed some in 31. This caused a back up in the warehouses.

Keep in mind there were a number of assembly plants across the nation. The parts were brought in and stocked by rail. So you can imagine one warehouse say at the Rouge plant getting loaded up for sending to say the CA assembly plant.

You could also see from the picture it was a first in last out warehouse. That is the first engines were stacked against the wall and they worked out from there. Also keep in mind on demand manufacturing did not happen. Someone made a guess and then they sent enough parts to meet the guess. I would think they always erred a bit on the high side too.

[wensum]

Originally Posted by Kevin in NJ

There are pictures in the books and floating around on the net of the warehouses. One picture shows a pile like 30 feet high of fenders and you can see hundreds of engines on the floor waiting.

From various books I have read over the years there was talk about production and storage and the back up as sales slowed some in 31. This caused a back up in the warehouses.

Keep in mind there were a number of assembly plants across the nation. The parts were brought in and stocked by rail. So you can imagine one warehouse say at the Rouge plant getting loaded up for sending to say the CA assembly plant.

You could also see from the picture it was a first in last out warehouse. That is the first engines were stacked against the wall and they worked out from there. Also keep in mind on demand manufacturing did not happen. Someone made a guess and then they sent enough parts to meet the guess. I would think they always erred a bit on the high side too.

I'd love to see that photo!?
Keith

[SeaSlugs]

Originally Posted by katy

Don't forget that the depression was world wide, not just in the US.

That is true - same token it took several months for people to actually see the effects of it. It wasn't instant overnight doom and gloom.

It could have just been a perfect storm so to speak and a little slice of everything.

[1930-Pickup]

Originally Posted by katy

Don't forget that the depression was world wide, not just in the US.

Yeah, Europe was hit hard too, especially Germany, which gave rise to the Nazi's, which led to WW2, which led to massive USA industrial might, which led to the USA becoming a superpower. Ahhh, History!

[Kevin in NJ]

This is not the picture I want, but one I found

[SeaSlugs]

I wonder how many times those fenders fell over or got dented before it was even put on a car and if they fixed it or not...

[1930-Pickup]

Originally Posted by Kevin in NJ

This is not the picture I want, but one I found

OMG
Do I see my April '30 motor for my late '30 PU? LOL
I'll bet the photo shows a train load capacity or something similar.
Amazing photo!

[Railcarmover]

Long Beach had a stamping plant so alot of that sheet metal could have been made in house.Ford did not assemble a car till it was sold to a dealer.Whats amazing is a days run of engines could have been in the thousands..no way could they all be stored at the Rouge,transit by rail affords some warehouse capability and so the branches did store most of it.What amazes me is the shear scale of it.

BTW...that warehouse is all hand stacked...

[Brad in Germany]

Here is a photo of the Long Beach engine warehouse area:


Brad in Maryland

[kimeccles]

1930-Pickup. I agree with your opinion 100%. My frame is mid-May 1930 which is when the engine was built among very many. My body has round speedometer, different top bows, different ignition cable only made in July and August 1930 with the oval patent plate, and Sept. top landau irons. Also Briggs built all of the Cabriolets and did put body number plates on the firewall. My body number plate says 161-19175, which if you factor the year evenly is Sept-1930 for the actual car build date of a total of 25,868 for the full year. However the year was not even and car production fell a lot in the last half which easily puts my car as a 1930 May engine build and a late Sept 1930 build date IMHO.

[1930-Pickup]

Originally Posted by kimeccles

1930-Pickup. I agree with your opinion 100%. My frame is mid-May 1930 which is when the engine was built among very many. My body has round speedometer, different top bows, different ignition cable only made in July and August 1930 with the oval patent plate, and Sept. top landau irons. Also Briggs built all of the Cabriolets and did put body number plates on the firewall. My body number plate says 161-19175, which if you factor the year evenly is Sept-1930 for the actual car build date of a total of 25,868 for the full year. However the year was not even and car production fell a lot in the last half which easily puts my car as a 1930 May engine build and a late Sept 1930 build date IMHO.

Mine also. April 1930 motor, chassis number TBD, but body/chassis features say September - December 1930. Is yours Long Beach built?

Does anyone else have an A that was built in Long Beach with a similar engine-to-body relationship?