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Old 10-04-2019, 04:45 AM   #41
BRENT in 10-uh-C
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Default Re: Model A prices...going which way?

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Originally Posted by ronn View Post
I see your point Dick and Bob- however, consider this..............


ebay has been in business for 22 yrs now. selling prices have always been readily available there.
One thing to factor in on eBay sales is most buyers go inspect the car before bidding. While the buyer is in the presence of the seller, a deal is often consummated, and the seller likely never shares that with eBay, so not sure if that would make eBay's figure accurate. Also, a shill bidder for the seller can inflate the bid price, and the seller can always tell eBay that the buyer declined after inspection. So the eBay approach may not always be accurate either.
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Old 10-04-2019, 06:41 AM   #42
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Default Re: Model A prices...going which way?

Why wouldn’t the true measure be to go to live auction sites such as B-J and others?
I haven’t tried it to know if there are enough transactions of “original” or close cars.
Also how much history is available?? How far back?
Listings on eBay and sometimes on the collector sites are often dreamers.
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Old 10-04-2019, 07:40 AM   #43
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Default Re: Model A prices...going which way?

Barrett-Jackson auction prices would give you info for top show cars, but you wouldn't get any data that's relevant if your intent is to buy a driver.
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Old 10-04-2019, 10:54 AM   #44
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Default Re: Model A prices...going which way?

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Why wouldn’t the true measure be to go to live auction sites such as B-J and others?...........................
Listings on eBay and sometimes on the collector sites are often dreamers.
Kinda sorta the reality of auctions is that price is only good at that time and place and situation, so the numbers get skewed. They aren't good indicators of value.(The way that Bob set his research up is a better indicator, thanks Bob for doing that work! Much appreciated.)

I was at an estate sale a few years ago to watch a '30 Ford Deluxe Roadster sell. The car wasn't a 10 footer it was more in the 50 foot range, a real turd. I wouldn't want the thing as a gift. It sold for $17K and the guy took it to another sale a year later and somebody paid $21K for it. And he hadn't done anything to the car. Those are the types of prices NADA gathers.

That is what NADA's yellow book value on collector cars shows mainly, nationwide auction prices and asking prices. If someone would walk up to me and offer me NADA Collector Car Value for any or all of my old cars I'd have an empty garage in about 5 minutes or however long it too to start them up and back them out.

Then, I'd take that cash and go shopping for replacement old cars

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Old 10-04-2019, 11:17 AM   #45
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Default Re: Model A prices...going which way?

I think we can take a guess at the typical difference between asking and selling prices. Bob's MEDIAN data (average adjusted for inflation) shows a pretty steady $18-20k average asking price over the last 20 years.

I'd guess that ASKING prices are about 20% greater than actual selling prices making the average selling price over the last 20 years adjusted for inflation $14-$16k. You can adjust Bob's ASKING prices to SELLING prices based on your best guess of the difference.

Another way to adjust ASKING to SELLING is to pull together a sample...big enough to make it statistically sound...of actual first time ads and final sales results. Somewhat time consuming, but nothing like the heavy lifting Bob has already done for us.
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Old 10-04-2019, 11:31 AM   #46
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Default Re: Model A prices...going which way?

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Barrett-Jackson auction prices would give you info for top show cars, but you wouldn't get any data that's relevant if your intent is to buy a driver.


The merchandise that you find at Barrett and other similar auctions is kinda semi-misleading in that the higher quality vehicles do get prime numbers (-which is what receives the most media attention) however there are many 'driver' quality vehicles that go across the block at these auctions that many non-spectators do not know about.
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Old 10-04-2019, 11:37 AM   #47
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Default Re: Model A prices...going which way?

Jeff,


Are you referring to NADA ? I do not agree with their prices. For example an average 1929 Coupe is listed at $20,800 and an average 1929 Town Car is listed as $18,000. I will take a dozen Town Cars at that price.


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Old 10-04-2019, 11:41 AM   #48
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Default Re: Model A prices...going which way?

As a equipment salesman once told me 'it aint dog food till the dog eats it'..true market trends rely on closed deal information,the hardest information to find.

Saw a beautiful 1948 Lincoln Continental cross the mecum block for 16k..auction pricing isn't a good indicator,some dealers 'bury their dead' at auction,let underperforming cars go at a low price,with the knowledge that other cars in their fleet will over perform.
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Old 10-04-2019, 11:46 AM   #49
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Default Re: Model A prices...going which way?

In regards to Barrett Jackson auction results, I've always used them as a barometer of how many folks have more money than brains.
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Old 10-04-2019, 12:39 PM   #50
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Default Re: Model A prices...going which way?

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In regards to Barrett Jackson auction results, I've always used them as a barometer of how many folks have more money than brains.

Couldn't the same thing be said for Motorhomes, Airplanes, Boats, and other toys? Even new vehicles sell for more than their actual value. Don't believe me? Go to a Dealership and purchase a new pick-up. Make your best deal and drive it around the block and take it back to that dealer and see what it is worth then.
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Old 10-04-2019, 02:33 PM   #51
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Default Re: Model A prices...going which way?

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Couldn't the same thing be said for Motorhomes, Airplanes, Boats, and other toys? Even new vehicles sell for more than their actual value. Don't believe me? Go to a Dealership and purchase a new pick-up. Make your best deal and drive it around the block and take it back to that dealer and see what it is worth then.
Agree. That's why I have never purchased a boat (Break Out Another Thousand), RV, ATV, ect... I prefer to blow my disposable income on early Ford's. Because I have little disposable income, I own early Fords and not vintage aircraft.
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Old 10-04-2019, 03:33 PM   #52
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Default Re: Model A prices...going which way?

I asked an economist about this issue (we only see the asking price and not the selling price) and he had an interesting observation, which is that you could get a little more information by analyzing how long the listings stay up. The longer the listing is up, the greater the probable distance between the "market price" for the car and the listing price. Considered in aggregate, cars that sell quickly are likely to be priced close to (or even below) the market price.
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Old 10-04-2019, 04:13 PM   #53
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Default Re: Model A prices...going which way?

Consult your local crystal ball.
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Old 10-04-2019, 05:39 PM   #54
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Default Re: Model A prices...going which way?

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Jeff,


Are you referring to NADA ? I do not agree with their prices. For example an average 1929 Coupe is listed at $20,800 and an average 1929 Town Car is listed as $18,000. I will take a dozen Town Cars at that price.


Bob
Bob you are correct sorry for the typo yes NADA is what I meant to say I went back and corrected it thanks.
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Old 10-04-2019, 05:51 PM   #55
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Default Re: Model A prices...going which way?

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Go to a Dealership and purchase a new pick-up. Make your best deal and drive it around the block and take it back to that dealer and see what it is worth then.
Once I ordered a new Ford from a dealership, and they said 'no problem' we don't have the car but another dealer does we'll do a dealer trade.

I had worked at a Ford dealership many years ago and understood that procedure and said 'OK go ahead'.

Well the bloody dealership was almost 600 miles away. Almost into Canada. When they called and told me the car was prepped and ready and I saw 620+ miles on the clock I said 'You gotta be kidding? This is a used car. Tain't a new car'. I told them 'So if I had bought this car with the normal 8 miles on the clock and brought it back with 600 miles and told you it was a new car and I wanted all my money back, you'd give it all back to me?' The Manager said 'Hell no that is a used car buddy.'

Never went back there they lost a lot of money for that crap, and I've bad mouthed them to anybody who would listen. I know of at least 6 or 7 new car and truck sales they lost because of me so we're even. Buddy. .
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Old 10-04-2019, 06:26 PM   #56
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Default Re: Model A prices...going which way?

A's in new england have been mostly stable, low to mid teens for daily drivers and high twenties, low thirties for the points car.

I think spending the money for an older restored/driver car in the teens is worth it, A's that need serious work knowing what parts/time and shipping have become are asking $7-10,000 would not work for me.

Besides in a few years everything is gonna be carbon neutral, what ever that means and we won't need or be driving cars, right
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Old 10-05-2019, 07:35 AM   #57
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Default Re: Model A prices...going which way?

We price over the phone with different stealerships. We know exactly what we are wanting to buy so it's apples and apples. We tell them to give us the number the check will be written for. They do and when we get there to do the deal they have 100% of the time forgotten to add some fee. We walk 100% of the time and they always wave it. Our rules are pretty simple and straightforward, give us the number we will write the check for as we are not financing. They lie everytime. Oh and Benny in Winston Salem chevy if you're here LOL @you.

I think my dad paid 10k for the sport coupe I have but I'm not sure as I can't ask him. If he did, he paid too much for the car in the shape it's in. He didn't usually get ripped on things as he was a pretty smart guy. Not sure why that figure is in my head and again, it could be off a few thousand In his favor.

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Once I ordered a new Ford from a dealership, and they said 'no problem' we don't have the car but another dealer does we'll do a dealer trade.

I had worked at a Ford dealership many years ago and understood that procedure and said 'OK go ahead'.

Well the bloody dealership was almost 600 miles away. Almost into Canada. When they called and told me the car was prepped and ready and I saw 620+ miles on the clock I said 'You gotta be kidding? This is a used car. Tain't a new car'. I told them 'So if I had bought this car with the normal 8 miles on the clock and brought it back with 600 miles and told you it was a new car and I wanted all my money back, you'd give it all back to me?' The Manager said 'Hell no that is a used car buddy.'

Never went back there they lost a lot of money for that crap, and I've bad mouthed them to anybody who would listen. I know of at least 6 or 7 new car and truck sales they lost because of me so we're even. Buddy. .
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Old 10-05-2019, 02:23 PM   #58
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Default Re: Model A prices...going which way?

One quick last story on the 'stealerships' ( I like that)

Several years after I left the Ford garage I worked at, the manager and a local BIG Ford dealer did a car for car trade for a customer. This dealership was less than 20 miles away. The mgr. went on vacation.

When the other dealership brought their vehicle, the main salesman at the place I worked for (and he was good, very honest everyone loved him he had been at this Ford garage for many years) didn't know the details of the deal. When he asked the other dealership 'how much' they lied and told him it was $XXXXX ($500 over what the deal was for). When the Mgr. came back from vacation and found out she went ballistic screaming at the guy. It wasn't his fault, the big Ford dealership was a lying sack of doo doo. He got mad and quit on the spot. They lost a LOT of sales over that. People came from a great distance to deal with Dave they appreciated his honesty. Those customers quit coming in.

The big dealership is still around the small one gave back their franchise after 60 years, Ford wanted them to spend 2 million dollars remodeling and rebuilding. The owner was retirement age so he just quit the business and retired.

And no there is no way I would ever deal with that other dealership. We drive 45 miles to a small town Ford dealer where they treat you right. I wave at the big dealership as I drive past them.
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Old 10-05-2019, 05:27 PM   #59
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Default Re: Model A prices...going which way?

Back in the mid 60's when I worked at the Pont-Cad d/ship. Had to go about 60 miles to get a "new" car at another dealership. Just reached up under the dash and dis-connected the speedo cable.......................
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Old 10-05-2019, 05:42 PM   #60
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I once (late 1976) decided I wanted a new 1976 Torino wagon because I did not like the 1977 models.Local Ford dealership did not want to look for one they wanted to sell me 1977 model.I went home and started calling Ford dealers back when every little town or village had one. One in Zanesville Ohio said they could get me one,what color and what options do you want? They called back and said they found one for me to come over 35 miles or so and look things over said sticker or price they wanted was $4,500.When we got there and looked over the paperwork it was $5,400.Salesman said he must have dyslexia or something he was sure it was $4500 and did I still want it at $5400? No way but as I was telling him you owe me some sorta gas allowance for lying and wasting my time. He got up and I saw where the car was in Pa. Went home and told local dealer where it was and I will buy it but not a 1977 model ever.So they sent two guys over to get it and even with paying them a days pay sold it for the $4500. I guess it had the 300 miles on it but I didn't argue the used car issue,I was happy to get it my first air conditioned car.Really liked that car but the 9" rear end came apart once when I backed up my long driveway,bearing backed off and after fixing it it howled,then wiring caught fire when it was 8 years old.
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