Will there be any model A’s left?

[David R.]

Every day I see adds: “parting out this model A” or “rolling chassis for sale, I’m keeping body”. Will there be any original cars left?

[ronn]

in 100 years, absolutely..............

[WHN]

Yes, the good ones will still be with us.

At some point even the best of antiques gets to the point that it’s time has come.

USS Constitution is less than 10 percent original.

Outside, used in the weather, poorly maintained, many different owners. That’s what will kill any antique.

Enjoy.

[Jack Shaft]

Nope,we have the last ones.And I hopped up mine

[GPierce]

They will still be around: Chopped and channeled on a 32 look-a- like frame, 32 replica FG radiator shroud, power steering, semi independent rear suspension, air conditioned, fuel injected V8, electronic ignition etc. ect. ect. Driven only to car shows and mall cruise-in’s.
Here in Tennessee they have the audacity to then put antique tags on them.

[Jack Shaft]

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There won't be any gasoline in ten years anyway

[johnneilson]

In 10 years there will be an increase in stills, some for me and the bad stuff for the cars

[Synchro909]

Originally Posted by Jack Shaft

There won't be any gasoline in ten years anyway

That's my thinking too but I think as fossil fueled cars are taken off the road, it will take more than 10 years for it to disappear. The writing is on the wall though.

[John Dayhuff]

The A's and gasoline cars will be around forever, just you wait and see.

[Oldbluoval]

Sort of ironic.....
Those that are buying parts from those “parting out” are generally building one from parts!
Out of the ashes comes another one!!

[Jack Shaft]

Originally Posted by johnneilson

In 10 years there will be an increase in stills, some for me and the bad stuff for the cars

Thats all a refinery is,a churched up likker still..reckon crude oil will be pennies for a barrel,Im sure some greaser will be cooking gasoline on the down low for the brothers

[1930-Pickup]

Will there be any left in 10 years, 100 years?

It can probably be estimated fairly close, and will most likely look like an exponential decay curve, with the lowest section of the curve being almost flat for a very long time.

We know how many Model A's there were at the end of 1931.
We would need a couple of data points from the past (i.e. 1940, 1950, 1960) when the number of registered Model A's were known.
And we need to know how many are left right now, or somewhat recently in the past.

Does anyone know how many are left today?
.

[Mulletwagon]

Yep, but probably converted to a warp drive using dilithium crystals.

[McMimmcs]

There will be gas and Model A Fords for all our lifetimes. Don’t let the pessimists push the panic button on you.

[1930-Pickup]

Originally Posted by McMimmcs

There will be gas and Model A Fords for all our lifetimes. Don’t let the pessimists push the panic button on you.

I like your optimistic attitude
Could you please cite some facts that support your opinion?

[A 2 B]

If future generations don't have the interest to preserve the legacy, Model A's are destined to fade away in time, only to be seen on display, in parades and historic related media. There will be less usable available parts, much fewer reproduction vendors which in turn will raise prices dramatically. Right now we are riding the crest of the internet wave which brings most available parts out in the open available for sale. It won't be long either, before all of us that have been hoarding parts will have passed and those parts will also be on the market. After that, I predict a slow decline into the realm of buggies and buckboards. I think anyone in the hobby today will enjoy their A's throughout their lifetime though. Nothing really for any of us to fret over.

[updraught]

No. They'll be taken out by the fires, floods, rising sea water and pestilence.
And the year hasn't finished yet ...

[McMimmcs]

Originally Posted by 1930-Pickup

I like your optimistic attitude
Could you please cite some facts that support your opinion?

Known and proven world oil reserves are calculated to be 47 years. The CanadianTar Sands alone could well double that!

[john charlton]

Old Blue Oval has got it right . I have two cars on the road driving that would not exist if the donor car had not been rodded . One was a one owner matching number car but its soul goes marching on in a new guise .I think most running rolling frames get rebodied so it is really recycling !!!

John in sunny morning Suffolk County England .

[marty in Ohio]

Well, I intend to still be driving mine 100 years from now.
Marty

[updraught]

Originally Posted by marty in Ohio

Well, I intend to still be driving mine 100 years from now.
Marty

We have the technology.

[Jack Shaft]

Originally Posted by McMimmcs

Known and proven world oil reserves are calculated to be 47 years. The CanadianTar Sands alone could well double that!

recoverable reserves based on hydraulic fracturing is huge,however we are not running out of oil,we are running out of sensible people.the current fires are being blamed on global warming,and that sells,global warming runs directly against petroleum.State and federal grants for the purchase of electric vehicles often put their price well under conventional fueled vehicles.smooth clean and quiet,and from a mechanics perspective easy to work on.software diagnostic tools are dumbed down to moron level.Large corporations are leading the charge,Amazon will be all electric with their delivery fleet in less than ten years.

one thing the pandemic taught us is how quickly things can change without much due process..

[Steve_Mack_CT]

Have this sort of discussion regularly with another prewar pal who collects CCCA stuff, and while he is handy, most of it has been or is in process of being restored professionally. He is convinced the Model A will be the last prewar standing due to parts availability and a lot of pro as well as hobbyist knowledge. Independent, non Classics are at most risk, when you think about it he might be spot on. Hot rods excluded..

[Licensed to kill]

Originally Posted by McMimmcs

Known and proven world oil reserves are calculated to be 47 years. The CanadianTar Sands alone could well double that!

Correction, "Canadian OIL sands" and yes, it does matter. Not to derail this thread but, funny thing about the oil sands. The eco terrorists have a coronary if a barrel or two of crude gets spilled yet they fight tooth and nail to prevent the oil companies from effectively cleaning up the worlds largest natural "oil spill" in the oil sands. Most don't know this but there are creeks and rivers that have had oil seeping into them for a millennia and the trees are scrubby and poor anywhere the oil sands are close to the surface. Where the sands have been mined and reclaimed the replanted trees are healthy and strong. Mining the oil sands is good for the local environment even if we DIDN'T have a use for the crude. Anyways, WAY off topic, sorry, just wanted to set the record straight.

[goodcar]

Originally Posted by Synchro909

That's my thinking too but I think as fossil fueled cars are taken off the road, it will take more than 10 years for it to disappear. The writing is on the wall though.

May not be any coupes or roadsters but sedans will live on as solar technology continues to improve. The flat roofs of the sedans will be adorned with solar panels. Some of those cars might even be equipped with popup wind sails for use on windy and cloudy days. Never underestimate the resourcefulness of the Model A folks.

[KCTA Chris]

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It's how it is, only thing that gripes me is the keeping of titles with the body instead of the chassis. On Fords thats the deal, chassis is your VIN... don't get me wrong, I'm a life long hot rodder and get it and been there. But when body is titled, and someone gets a lost title for that parted frame from the state next door, someone is going to have an issue down the road.
I try to do it by the book, tax paying upright citizen, but that but that also makes me the unlucky SOB who will end up with the short end.

[McMimmcs]

Originally Posted by Licensed to kill

Correction, "Canadian OIL sands" and yes, it does matter. Not to derail this thread but, funny thing about the oil sands. The eco terrorists have a coronary if a barrel or two of crude gets spilled yet they fight tooth and nail to prevent the oil companies from effectively cleaning up the worlds largest natural "oil spill" in the oil sands. Most don't know this but there are creeks and rivers that have had oil seeping into them for a millennia and the trees are scrubby and poor anywhere the oil sands are close to the surface. Where the sands have been mined and reclaimed the replanted trees are healthy and strong. Mining the oil sands is good for the local environment even if we DIDN'T have a use for the crude. Anyways, WAY off topic, sorry, just wanted to set the record straight.

No correction needed just your apology. The correct name is Canadian Tar Sands aka Canadian Oil Sands.

[ericr]

Originally Posted by McMimmcs

Known and proven world oil reserves are calculated to be 47 years. The CanadianTar Sands alone could well double that!

is there any scientific opinion as to whether petroleum is still being formed inside the earth?

[Jack Shaft]

Citing reserves doesnt tell the whole story,reserves are based on recovery cost,not identified fields. Fracturing opened vast fields in the Permian and Eagle Ford formations that were considered 'played out' with conventional techniques.It basically opened all plays again,regardless of past recovery.

[updraught]

Originally Posted by ericr

is there any scientific opinion as to whether petroleum is still being formed inside the earth?

You could ask NASA. They are funding one of our oldest fossil fields.
https://www.energymining.sa.gov.au/p...rliest_animals

[McMimmcs]

Originally Posted by Jack Shaft

Citing reserves doesnt tell the whole story,reserves are based on recovery cost,not identified fields. Fracturing opened vast fields in the Permian and Eagle Ford formations that were considered 'played out' with conventional techniques.It basically opened all plays again,regardless of past recovery.

What did he say ????

[ronn]

Known and proven world oil reserves are calculated to be 47 years. The CanadianTar Sands alone could well double that!

Canadian tar sands could last 1000 yrs. somebodies stats are way off............lol!

they were wrong in the 70s and theyre wrong now.

[ronn]

read the Quest by Yergin- 800 pages of boring facts.

[Jack Shaft]

Originally Posted by McMimmcs

What did he say ????

Fracking reopens 'dried up' wells,some of the traditional west texas oil patch wells are producing again.

Oil reserves are based on what it costs to get to the oil,the expensive to get to oil isn't counted,so your 47 year figure is way higher..there,understand?

[ronn]

well Jack, your 20. bill from the 70s isnt the 20. of today. a 20. today is the "new" 5. bill!


try eating at McDs...........lol


barrel of oil is still in the 38. range- incredibly cheap

[McMimmcs]

Originally Posted by ronn

Known and proven world oil reserves are calculated to be 47 years. The CanadianTar Sands alone could well double that!

Canadian tar sands could last 1000 yrs. somebodies stats are way off............lol!

they were wrong in the 70s and theyre wrong now.

Who was wrong on the seventies !

[Jack Shaft]

Inexpensive,abundant energy is the backbone of our economy.Nuclear power was poised to to take over from oil..till Hanoi Jane made 'China Syndrome'..today the French and Japanese lead in nuclear power,Toshiba developed a fully encased reactor that is 'portable' and will serve a city of 30k for 30 years..deliver it to site,wire it into the grid and done,when spent send back to Toshiba for rebuild...The French company Arriva leads in the reuse of 'spent' fuel rods,reducing the need for storage,imagine if our technological capability had been used to advance nuclear power..instead we build windmills and solar panels..

[McMimmcs]

Originally Posted by Jack Shaft

Fracking reopens 'dried up' wells,some of the traditional west texas oil patch wells are producing again.

Oil reserves are based on what it costs to get to the oil,the expensive to get to oil isn't counted,so your 47 year figure is way higher..there,understand?

A guesstimate at best. I grew up in a refinery !

[McMimmcs]

We’ve been unfair to original posters question. Apologies sent.

[Jack Shaft]

Originally Posted by McMimmcs

A guesstimate at best. I grew up in a refinery !

Nope on the guesstimate part reserves are actually still being found,recoverable reserves in the Gulf of Mexico has just gone up in the past few years.


I get to wear nomex once in awhile,rail served coke and butane operations,also bulk transloading.Covid killed a lot of subcontracted services,haven't been to Benecia in months

[Jack Shaft]

Originally Posted by McMimmcs

We’ve been unfair to original posters question. Apologies sent.

cant run an internal combustion engine without fuel,,we are on topic

[ronn]

Who was wrong on the seventies !



it was stated we would be out of oil in 10 yrs. remember?


does anyone remember buying gas odd and even tag numbers?


WHAT A JOKE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YES IM LAUGHING...............

[McMimmcs]

Originally Posted by ronn

Who was wrong on the seventies !



it was stated we would be out of oil in 10 yrs. remember?


does anyone remember buying gas odd and even tag numbers?


WHAT A JOKE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YES IM LAUGHING...............

Yes and you should be, haha!

[Jeff/Illinois]

Kind of off subject in a way but as I watch the big fires on TV out West that they are having out there, I have to wonder 'How many old cars got burned up?"

Last year I recall Hagerty showing a number of them on a video they produced, cars of all kinds from antiques to muscle cars to nice old drivers from the 50's-60's and 70's.

[Ernie Vitucci]

I do think that more A's are on the road now than there were 20 years ago. I believe that gas will still be available well down the road...it may be Aviation Gas! Now that new Model A Blocks are coming on line courtesy of Terry Burtz...all necessary parts are available...so well have them running far into the murky future. Ernie in Arizona

[Jeff/Illinois]

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Originally Posted by Ernie Vitucci

I do think that more A's are on the road now than there were 20 years ago. I believe that gas will still be available well down the road...it may be Aviation Gas! Now that new Model A Blocks are coming on line courtesy of Terry Burtz...all necessary parts are available...so well have them running far into the murky future. Ernie in Arizona

I likes da way you think Nice to hear optimism for a change!

New BIG oil fields continue to be 'discovered' world wide.

One good thing about the electric car revolution may be it will make gasoline available longer down the road, to some extent. May wind up buying it in 5 gallon containers from the parts suppliers, kind of like you have to do today with high octane racing gas. Expensive but those Sunoco Racing Gas cans are sure attractive