So, borrowed the spring spreader around 5 and had the transmission apart by 9:45 with a break for dinner, probably not great time but not too bad for my first time.
I would say the question mark on the title of this thread is no longer needed..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZ04V3Hd730
Oil level was low, looks like the front bearing started to fail and a lot of oil got out the front and into the bell housing which explains the drip I was getting. If I had to guess I'd say that the bearings are 60ish years old (not Ford but replaced long ago) so it's had a good run. The cluster shaft needed to be pressed out but other than that everything came apart easily, will see how the gears look after a night in the parts washer.