How Many Model A's are left ?
 

I am wondering if anyone has come up with a recent calculation as to how many Ford Model A's are left.

Several years ago, I made my own 'Ball Park' guess-timation: MAFCA has about 14,000 members, MARC has about 11,000 members, with maybe, two thousand over-lapping members. That would be roughly 23,000 members of the two National clubs. Somewhere, long ago, I read a survey that indicated that there were an average of three Model A's per member. Some guys are sensible with just one car - others with less self-control - with 3, 4, 5 or more. But three cars was the average at that time.

Using those old figures, 3 times 23,000 would be somewhere in the 'ball park' of 70,000 Ford Model A's. Then there are all those Model A owners who have no club affiliation with either MARC or MAFCA. Just how many is anyone's guess, but less say another 5,000 who are just not 'joiners'. At three cars each, that adds another 15,000 cars to the previous 70,000, for a total of 85,000 Ford Model A's.

IF this number is anywhere close to the actual (forever unknown) number, then it would make for a fairly impressive survival rate of the 5 million or so Ford Model A's that were made between 1928 and 1931. (Yes, I know that production began in late 1927 and ended in early 1932).

Because my first 'old car' was a 1928 Chevrolet, and I am also a student of Automotive history, I am familiar with the fact that in 1928 Chevrolet sold significantly more cars than Ford; and for the four years of Model A production, Chevrolet had pretty much matched Ford production. So where are all those Chevrolets ? Dumb question - please don't answer.

So, I would like to get other opinions and input to this question of " How Many Model A's are left ? "

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

247,133, in the book "The Legendary Model A Ford:..." it says 250,000, but I think he is a bit over optimistic.

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

Someone posted a few months back that he did a search on the web and there were 3,500 Model A's for sale in the USA at that moment.
I see new finds showing up all the time. Some may be just a frame and cowl,so I think the number will keep going up.

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

Hmm, if there were 3.500 cars for sale, I have to think that the number would represent more or less complete cars, mostly running. Say a selling average of 8,000 dollars each, that would be about $28,000,000 of available inventory at any point in time. Good thing to remember when you are out looking for one.

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

i think your way short of 5,000 non joiners or just A's sitting in barns and fields. it's impossible to know but the figure would be suprisingly high IMO.

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

I would guess that less than 10% of the Model A owners out there are a member of either national club. I bet if you took a poll of all of the Model A owners that currently have cars listed on Ebay you would find that virtually none of them members of either national club. I wonder how many Model A enthusiasts on this website alone are not members of either national group? I've sold a lot of Model As over the years to new collectors and even though you encourage people to join I am sure almost none of them have. In the old days (read: before computers) the only source of parts and information was through the national and regional clubs via listings in their publications and through personally connecting with other members. (Remember how we could not wait to tear the cover off The Restorer or Model A News to see what was for sale in the back? Remember when Hemmings really was the "Bible"?) Now, the information and parts sources are at everyone's fingertips, 24 hours a day. While I certainly feel that interest in Model As (as well as other prewar cars) is at an all time high, and will continue to grow, the amount of club members-in any of the cars clubs, not just the Model A clubs-will at best hold its own if not decline slightly. Personally, I would never give up my MARC/MAFCA (and other old car club) memberships but that is just me. Time will tell....

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

Geez, this is hard to know! However, I've seen the estimated world wide population at 250,000. This does not seem unreasonable. I agree with Mitch, there are more non-joiners than joiners. About the Chevies, From what I've heard, they had more wood in them than the Fords. But mostly, the Fords got better gas mileage and were held back from the WW2 scrap drives.
Terry

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

Wick-
Start a new thread on the rebuilding of the low mileage A! and close up shots!!

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

I think there is more than people think left. At least it seams that way around here. I have a few insurance guys that find cars for me. And they tell me that they see quite a few of them in old barns or garages. And even out to pasture. The more these old folks die off. We will see more cars.

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

I have a 2dr coup about two blocks from me.
Been there for years and will be form many more, if the owner has his way.

I'v been trying to buye it for the last three years since I found it in the garage.

He keeps saying that he is going to restore it.I have great doubts about this.

How many more out there like this ????

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

Tons

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

Good question Doug...... too bad the DMV from each state couldn't be polled with that info from the historic plates they issue or some other simple way of knowing our cars had a special classic/antique designation. But then that would include your 1928 Chevy too!

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

Don't forget all the non USA A's as well. The A was a truly international car. I would just call the number 'lots'.

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

Here is an article I wrote for our club's newsletter in October. Of the estimates and conjectures I have seen over the years; this is the one I like the best.

Have you ever wondered how many Model A’s still survive today? Of the Ford TriMotor planes built (199), there are 8 still in existence. Since the plane is 80+ years old (as is the Model A), and lasted longer than initially predicted (just as our Model A’s have); we can apply a similar ratio from the TriMotor to the Model A (since they were both built by Ford Motor Company). That would calculate there being approximately 190 to 200-thousand A’s still around. No wonder it’s been said there are more Model A’s than all the other antique cars put together.

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

so many are hidden in garages , etc. I don't see how you could even guess .......

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

I would guesse around 500,000 left taking into account nonrunning stored away complete cars and restored cars that have barely seen the light of day since the 70's. I know of 22 restored cars in the area that basicly have not moved in 40 years and nearly 150 complete nonrunning, but rather complete cars stored away for many years. To some my estimate would seem quite high, but I have to think the truth would suprise most. Rod

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

The figure I have heard for years is one million world wide.

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

I talked to several old timers who bought late '20s Chevrolets as used cars in the '30s, and they all said it was common even at that stage to put carriage bolts through the door framing to keep the doors workable.

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

An older cousin of my father (now deceased) had a 28 or 29 chevy and said that year was notorious as an axle breaker.
Terry

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

When I was a 'youngster' (oh, those were the dayzzz . . . ) the figure I most often heard was 'about a quarter of a million - 250,000. But I have since learned that that figure was/is a bit like that elusive Duesenberg that someone heard for someone, who has it on good 'authority' that a he once heard of a guy that had his ex-brother-in-law tell him that he saw a Duesenberg, covered with dust, sitting in a single-car garage, which had it's owner dead for low these many years - the car is out there 'somewhere'. But in fact, we just can't seem to find it.

After being in the 'hobby' for over 50 years now, and 'bumping elbows' with a great many Model A owners (and their cars, and their parts), I have since come to very seriously doubt that a quarter of a million Ford Model A's exist. At best, I believe that if we were to double my base number (85,000) to take into account all the 'nooks and crannies' of the existing Model A Stock, at 170,000, we would still fall short of having a quarter of a million Model A's.

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

I'm still new to owning a Model A and a AA but here in Kentucky I see MANY old cars out there. Lol there is one guy down the road has a Model A Museum! Of course each Museum is a idea of the owner in this case, lol its all the Old Model A's and AA's he found in fields, under trees or in a garage. He took them back to his place and there they sit just like they was from the find. Lol one Phantom he found in a barn that has Bird Crap ALL Over it. I must say it looks GREAT in his Museum just like all his others. He has a GREAT collection of AA's I'm like him I think they look GREAT just like they are. It would be a safe bet to say his collection has some 30 Model A's AA's along with a LOT of cowls. WOW it really is a fun Time to look at what most ppl would call Junk. LoL And we can't forget to add the Doodlebugs in the count Too. Google DoodleBug and find out How MANY there is out there. I think I want a AA doodlebug one of these days just for spare parts on my AA StakeBed LoL

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

Doug, There's always the chance that you may be right. Try this, Does every town over 1000 population have at least one or two model As? From fully restored to a frame sitting on blocks (My boss from Ringoes, NJ had nine) How many towns over 1000 are there? As an example, NJ has 564 towns. Now you know it has a lot more than 564 model As. My town of Jackson had at least a dozen, that I knew of.
Terry

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

One thing that is unique to the Ford Model A : whatever that unknown survival number is, what is sure, is that the number will continue to grow. With a great bulk of component parts cluttering up our 'back forty' we have an tremendous potential for 'growth'.

When I was first interested in and involved with the Model A in the mid-1950's (in those days when there were no 'Parts Houses'), every one I know who had a Model A, had at least an additional couple of frames, two or three engines, a stack of transmissions, a pile of rear-ends, boxes full of brake drums/backing plates, fenders, hoods, running boards, etc. etc. All of the essential 'guts and back bone' of what is needed to build a 'new' Model A are still present with us.

Unfortunately for me, I was/am one of those 'old codgers', and still swim in a sea of original Ford-made Model A parts. Now, while these bits and pieces may eventually be worked into the creation of a 'new' completed car, at the moment they only represent 'potential' - not existing Ford Model A's.

However, having such a large stock of original component parts is very encouraging. Ignoring places like BERT'S acres and acres of original Ford Model A cars, parts & 'bits and pieces' (what was called a 'Junk Yard' in the old days), there are a great many of Model A owners who have stock-piled component parts - a good portion of the 5 million Model A's that were made. (see Ford Barn Forum post "How Do U Store/Find ?") These will eventually add to our tally, ensuring that our venerable and ubiquitous Model A will survive in the public conscience forever more.

So whatever the number, either my conservative 170,000 or the more optimistic 250,000 - the number is relatively staggering, in relation to all the other surviving marques of the 1920's and 1930's. I suspect that we are not too far away (if not there already) that the general public will equate 'old car', 'antique car', 'historic car' etc., with the Ford Model A.

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

:cool:Yes, i belive to.. Here in Scadinavien we have a lot of Model A... And i have in my mind, that there are company´s living to make new part´s for Model A.. And there is many Company´s and i do belive they do it fine..

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

I'm with CarlG. I believe that at least a million still exist. Many have been built from NOS, repro and good used parts . Brookville has made quiet a few new roadster bodies

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

This is true. I have a '30 Chevy and they do break often. I even carry a spare in the trailer when I go on tour. Paid off when I was on the Glidden tour in Colorado a couple of years ago. Sorry to hijack the thread with my OT post.:)

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

This past summer I looked at 3 Model A's and 2 T's in a Garage just outside of town Sitting there for 20 to 40 years and will be until I make room for them? 2 more A's came to the Island this summer that I know of. And the T's that are showing up.
The Low mileage A has been named "The Lady" she is resting with a good coat of Gibbs oil. Her time will come.

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

Just finished and got running over the weekend an A made from spare parts and swap meet stuff. What ever number you settle on, add 1!

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

The actual number will never be known. How many Model As are not registered ? What constitutes a Model A ? There are just too many unknowns. Here are some estimates base on different samples.

(1).
I live in a town with about 50,000 people. I know of 25 Model As in my town. There is likely 10 to 25 that I am unaware of. There are about 300,000,000 people in the United States. Using those number the estimate would be 200,000 to 300,000 Model As in the US.

(2)
I know of 25 Model A Town Cars. There were 1198 Town Cars made. Total Model A production was about 4.7 million. So we get about 100,000 Model As still around.

3)
Cabriolets. The production totals were 68A 17,774, 68B 38,000, 68C 5,200. The Cabriolet Club has a count of 68A 50, 68B 102, 68C 74. Those compute to 13,000 13,000 and 67,000.

(4)
400A There were 5072 Convertible Sedans made. The A400 club has a count of about 150 cars. That computes to about 140,000 cars.


Which estimate would you pick. The number of Cabriolets in the Cabriolet Club is likely only a small percentage of the surviving Cabriolets. The Town Car and Convertible Sedan numbers are likely closer to the actual remaining cars. But the survival rate of those body styles may not be representative of all the body styles. After all 25% of all Model A made were Tudors.


Bob

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

WOW.. Sounds like there's still plenty to restore or HOT ROD...

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

How many left? not enough. Club numbers sound odd. Most of those people are probably all members of the same family or something & would have to overlap. i almost never see model 'A's, i would have thought maybe 6,000 in the USA & another 4,000 worldwide.
Most model 'A's i see with original spec' chassis are roadsters or coupes & only some of them have original bodies, the rest will never rust again. There was this old man who bought a really nice roadster but one day he noticed the chips in the paint were not rusting, only the gas tank was steel.
That is how the surviving population of model A fords look from here.

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

I find 1 million to be overly optimistic and can believe 250,000.

I also see so many cars being "destroyed" as rods that I am not as optimistic as some on this board about survival rate. I am not talking about minor alterations, but total gut jobs. Punch in Model A ford on ebay and what percentage are rods and what percentage pure. Pure loses by a long shot.... and will continue to.

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

I believe that, I have seen a picture of a special Chevrolet tool called an Axle Shaft Remover in a independent garage supply catalog.

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

actually 247,134 (nobody knows about mine)

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

I recently checked with the U.S. Census Bureau and they have informed me that in the last U.S. Census, besides counting the number of people in the United States, while they were in the neighborhood, they also conducted a separate census on the number of Ford Model A's.

The number they tallied, counting all 50 States, was 148,263. This number included all cars that were running, as well as those that were not running or licensed. It included all Fords that looked like a Model A. It did not look under the hood or at the chassis. It DID NOT include uncompleted cars, unfinished chassis, bodies, etc.

However, the Official U.S. Census report of all the Model A's in the U.S., did not account for all the other Ford Model A's outside the U.S. A contact has been made with both the C.I.A. and the KGB, as well as the Mossad, for information gathering by those key international intelligence agencies. A world-wide total is expect from them within the next year. As this information becomes available to me, I shall share it with the FORD BARN FORUM.

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

Just missed being the closest by one. :mad:

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

I wonder if state motor vehicle bureaus have any kind of breakdown on titled cars by age or historical plates.

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

I have in front of me the Volume 57 issue 3 (September/October 2012) copy of the MAFCA "Restorer".
Starting on page 24 are the remarks to the 2012 Convention by Edsel B. Ford ll. He states "The good news is that there are over 250,000 model A's still on the road today, many of them right here in Marquette this week. with another 750,000 or so awaiting restoration."
I personaly have zero knowledge on the subject and can not comment, butYes,I read and reread those numbers and I reread it again before replying to the thread.
Great subject, thanks for starting
Burt

Re: How Many Model A's are left ?
 

I think that Model A's were still made in South America and other countries for years after the 1932 cut off date here in the United States. This would greatly increase the number of model A's Actually produced to way over five million. Lots of model A's have been built from NOS and reproduction parts that remained in production for years after actual model A production. On another note, it ain't good when the CIA and KGB starts looking into stuff. Who knows what might be next !!!!!!!